The Overlooked Threat of Hybrid Warfare

How disinformation, cyberattacks, and manipulation are reshaping global conflicts and undermining democracies

Despite its growing importance as one of the most significant threats in today’s world, hybrid warfare often remains underestimated. This form of conflict transcends traditional battles involving tanks and fighter jets, taking the shape of subtle, covert operations conducted simultaneously across multiple fronts, often without a single shot being fired. It can be likened to a complex geopolitical chess match, where the pieces are not just military units but also fake news, cyberattacks, economic coercion, and political manipulation. This game of manipulation and strategy frequently blurs the lines between peace and war, leaving the identities of the aggressor and the victim ambiguous, creating an atmosphere of chaos and uncertainty.

Fake profiles and so-called “useful idiots” on social media platforms, who spread disinformation and sow distrust and chaos, are among the most powerful tools of hybrid warfare. Their effectiveness lies in their ability to systematically erode social cohesion, foster mistrust in key institutions, and deepen polarization. This mechanism allows attackers to exert subtle yet far-reaching influence on public opinion. Ordinary individuals, often unwittingly, become vectors for disseminating strategically designed disinformation, fostering an environment ripe for the destabilization of societal and political systems.

Democratic states, rooted in open public discourse and a plurality of media voices, are uniquely vulnerable to the threats of hybrid warfare. Media outlets often find themselves on the front lines, playing a critical role in shaping public opinion and providing credible information. Their responsibility lies in creating a space for legitimate criticism and discussions about abuses of power, while also recognizing and countering the traps set by disinformation campaigns. These campaigns can spread chaos, deepen mistrust, and undermine the authority of key democratic institutions. To avoid unwittingly becoming tools of aggressors, media must operate as transparent and reliable sources of information, strengthening public resilience to manipulation and actively exposing the tactics of hybrid warfare. By doing so, they contribute not only to protecting institutions but also to ensuring the long-term stability of democratic societies.

Key tactics of hybrid warfare include sophisticated forms of manipulation that subtly guide the target toward decisions that ultimately serve the attacker’s interests. This strategy hinges on crafting a distorted perception of reality, influencing the interpretation of events and information. For instance, by spreading carefully crafted false information, attackers can lead their targets to take actions that are not only unnecessary but may even harm their own interests. A core element of this strategy, known as “reflexive control,” is convincing the targeted party that they arrived at these decisions independently, even though their choices were meticulously directed through manipulative tactics. Reflexive control exploits deep-seated cognitive biases, informational gaps, and unconscious trust in flawed premises. It frequently overlaps with disinformation campaigns, cyberattacks, and economic pressures, forming a complex and nearly imperceptible network of threats. These threats subtly but effectively undermine social and political systems, destabilizing the very foundations of democratic societies.